October 31, 2011

Why Microsoft's vision of the future will really happen

Two videos from Microsoft show the future of technology. Here's why I think they're dead-on

Computerworld - Microsoft released a video in 2008 and another one this week that together predict the sleek, wireless, connected gadgets we'll all enjoy by the year 2019.


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In one scene, two businesspeople each place a smart object on a smart table -- a keychain fob and a flat phone or smartcard of some kind. From these devices, out spills their data, which can be manipulated on the table. The same thing happens at home, where a girl's homework spills out onto the kitchen table, and cookbook instructions spill out onto the kitchen counter.

Data and documents can apparently be transferred from anything to anything else. One business-related example involves a drag-and-drop gesture from a desktop to a mobile device. In another scene, that same mobile device becomes a virtual keyboard for a desktop computer the user happens to be sitting at.

Another example shows a man "capturing" with a kind of take-a-picture gesture using a clear-glass remote control then moving data from a wall-mounted device and dumping it out onto his e-newspaper.

Videoconferencing has been perfected. What looks like a glass window into another classroom is actually a live, big-screen video chat connecting schools in India and Australia. In one scene, two children interact with each other, each speaking a different language instantly translated with cartoon-like speech bubbles.

Intelligent agents pay attention to what's going on. The kids fingerpaint a dog onscreen, and the computer recognizes the image and animates it accordingly.

One very cool and versatile device shown in the video is a smartphone, a card-like gadget so thin that a woman uses it as a book marker. The card functions as a boarding pass, an airport map, a calendar, an augmented reality window, a 3D holographic display and more.

The phone splits into two halves about the size of playing cards, with one "card" displaying live video and the other held up to the ear for videoconferencing on the go. It even projects some kind of laser beam arrow on the ground, telling Mr. Future Businessman where to go.

Everything is connected to everything. Intelligent agents make decisions about when to inform the user about relevant data.
Why these are great predictions

Everything in this video is being worked on, refined and developed. If you follow current trends for compute power, display technology, networking speeds, device miniaturization, flexible displays, touchscreens, gesture technologies and others, you get this Microsoft future.

And Microsoft itself is working on much of this. The intelligent displays are really just advanced versions of what's possible now with a Microsoft Surface table. The in-air gestures are advanced versions of what Kinect for Xbox 360 users are already doing.

Industrywide, displays are getting bigger while devices are getting thinner and lighter. Companies have already developed versions of clear displays, augmented reality systems and all the rest.

The past four years have ushered in thin multitouch tablets supporting gestures and intelligent agent voice technology.

Although breathtaking to look at and consider, everything in Microsoft's videos are fairly conservative predictions based on existing products or technology actively being developed.
Why Microsoft won't build it

There tends to be little connection between companies that envision the future clearly and those who build it.

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